What is the MVRV Z-score? Formula and interpretation
As of 2026-11-05, the Bitcoin MVRV Z-score is 0.71, in the 'Neutral' zone by convention (below 0 undervalued, above 7 overheated).
The MVRV Z-score is an on-chain indicator of how expensive or cheap Bitcoin is relative to its 'average cost basis'. It takes the difference between market cap (valued at market price) and realized cap (each coin valued at the price when its holder last moved it), and divides it by how much market cap has fluctuated (its standard deviation), so that cycle tops and bottoms can be compared.
Formula
MVRV = market cap ÷ realized cap
MVRV Z-score = (market cap − realized cap) ÷ standard deviation of market cap
Market cap (Market Value) is circulating supply × current price. Realized cap (Realized Value) sums each coin multiplied by the price when it last moved on-chain, approximating all holders' average cost basis. This site back-calculates realized cap from Coin Metrics Community Data market cap and MVRV, and computes the standard deviation over all market cap data up to that day. Because the window used for the standard deviation varies by site, values may differ slightly from other services.
Interpretation: 0 and 7
Below 0 (undervalued): market cap is below realized cap. Holders as a whole are at a loss on average, and past cycle bottoms formed in this zone.
0 to 7 (neutral): most of the time is spent in this zone. The higher the value, the larger the profit relative to average cost.
Above 7 (overheated): market cap exceeds realized cap by more than 7 standard deviations. The 2013 and 2017 tops were in this zone. However, the Z-score at each cycle top has been falling: in 2021 it barely passed 7, and in 2024 it peaked in the 3s. So 7 is hard to use as a top signal as is.
Past tops and bottoms (as calculated by this site)
The values below are daily values recalculated by this site using the same method. Dates are in UTC, and prices are that day's close.
- 2013-04-09 top: Z-score 10.66, price about $231
- 2013-11-22 top: Z-score 9.58, price about $803
- 2015-01-14 bottom: Z-score −0.60, price about $176
- 2017-12-07 top: Z-score 10.09, price about $17,032
- 2018-12-15 bottom: Z-score −0.49, price about $3,185
- 2020-03-12 bottom (COVID crash): Z-score −0.20, price about $4,959
- 2021-02-21 top: Z-score 7.15, price about $57,501
- 2022-11-09 bottom (FTX collapse): Z-score −0.36, price about $15,758
- 2024-12-16 top: Z-score 3.35, price about $105,856
Limitations
With only about four Bitcoin cycles, this is not a statistically validated trading signal. As holders that rarely move coins, such as exchanges, ETFs and long-term holders, grow, the meaning of realized cap changes, and the Z-score at tops keeps falling cycle after cycle. Use it alongside other indicators as a reference for gauging the market phase.